Predicting the 2014 Oscar Nominees

We're less than 24 hours from one of the most exciting days on any movie prognosticator's calendar, Oscar Nomination Day! This year, thanks to a wide spectrum of strong filmmaking, many of the races are overcrowded with talent dying to hear their name called tomorrow morning. Here's how I envision the 6 major categories playing out, when the Nominations are announced tomorrow:

Best Supporting Actress

This race seems fairly locked down, but teetering on the edge of in/out is ironically one of the most powerful women in the world, Oprah Winfrey. While I was on the anti-Oprah side of the argument, her star-power alone makes her a difficult omission by the Academy. Although the Golden Globes passes her over with ease, I don't see the Oscars doing the same. As a result, Blue Jasmine's Sally Hawkins looks to be the odd-woman odd in this dogfight.

Nominees: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), June Squibb (Nebraska) and Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)

Best Supporting Actor

No one quite knows where the biggest wildcard this year, The Wolf of Wall Street, stacks up in any of the major battles. Will the Academy embrace the excellent work from a legendary director, or will they turn their back to it amidst controversy that the film glorifies its subject matter? If the Oscars go all-in with Scorsese's work, then Jonah Hill has a legitimate shot of hearing his name called tomorrow. However, with an always over-stuffed Supporting Actor race, I find Hill to be on the outside looking in, unfortunately. The Academy will find other ways of recognizing The Wolf of Wall Street, while Jonah Hill will sadly miss the cut like other Oscar-hopefuls such as the late James Gandolfini, the "never really had a shot" James Franco and Tom Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks. 

Nominees: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Daniel Bruhl (Rush), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) and Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Actress

Plenty has been made about Meryl Streep's surprising defeat this weekend at the hands of American Hustle's Amy Adams during the Golden Globes. But it's important to remember that the Globes do their own thing, and it isn't necessarily a sign of things to come. Streep has a proven track record with the Academy, and I'd put my money on those odds any day. Also, while attempting to ride the Amy-Adams-wave, I searched near and far for a proper exclusion on her behalf. Sure, American Hustle is backed by some much-needed momentum, but outside of Emma Thompson from the quickly fading Saving Mr. Banks, I just don't see the room for Adams. Sorry, can't sit here!

Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) and Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

Best Actor

Once again, we're tasked with deciphering The Wolf of Wall Street's effect on the voting body. And while Jonah Hill is gonna find himself couch surfing in early March, I anticipate that there's enough love to catapult Leonardo DiCaprio into the final five. It's a bold move considering the long documented history of Leo-snubs, even as recent as last year's Django Unchained. Christian Bale always felt like an outsider and Inside Llewyn Davis' Oscar Issac never built a head of steam, but the biggest casualty at Leo's expense is the wonderful Robert Redford. The All Is Lost star refused to play "the game" and it looks like he could very well miss out on a nomination because of of it. 

Nominees: Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Director

When it comes to the directing race, the Golden Globes seemed to reinforce what we already knew ... How can you not reward Alfonso Cuaron's groundbreaking work in Gravity? While there's three secure picks along with Steve McQueen and David O. Russell, any of the other five major players find themselves scratching and clawing for the final two spots. It's really a coin flip as to how this could unfold, but I feel like Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips), Spike Jonze (Her) and the Coen brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis) will be left of the list.

Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), David O. Russell (American Hustle) and Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Best Picture

Finally, it's the wacky and wild circus surrounding the Best Picture race. Ever since the rule changes have allowed anywhere from five to ten nominees depending on number of first-place votes, these predictions have become a refined art that many of us still can't seem to master. For me, I expect nine titles to make the cut. Unfortunately, that means omissions to Blue Jasmine, Philomena, Lee Daniels' The Butler and Saving Mr. Banks.

Nominees: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska and The Wolf of Wall Street

*** Starting tomorrow I'll be posting live from the Sundance Film Festival, so stay in touch and get a first-look at the best independent film 2014 will have to offer!

Greg's Top 10 Films of 2013

A few days ago I introduced my selections for the Top 10 Films of 2013. This time around my friend and film-buff, Greg Rouleau (Reel True), wanted a crack at the action. I have massive amounts of respect for Greg's credentials as an avid fan of cinema. He's graduated with a degree in filmmaking and as another loyal member of The Philadelphia Film Society, Greg's been exposed to just about every major release of the year. So for another opinion regarding the best films of the year, here are Greg Rouleau's picks.

Honorable Mention: All Is Lost, Enough Said, Rush and Spring Breakers.

#10. This Is the End

This apocalyptic comedy from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg was easily the funniest movie of the year.  From the cameo-filled opening to the ridiculous final sequence, it was a joy to watch this group of real-life friends play exaggerated versions of themselves.  The writing duo perfectly balanced some raunchy humor and wild horror elements with a touching theme about friendship.  

#9. Captain Phillips

Paul Greengrass helms this thriller with a deft hand for staging action and building tension that leads to a terrific final sequence.  Newcomer Barkhad Abdi goes toe-to-toe with veteran Tom Hanks, who turns in another stellar performance as the title character.  Hanks final scene is a gut-wrenching display that should earn him another Oscar nod.  

#8. Blue Jasmine

Cate Blanchett was penciled in as the Oscar frontrunner when this summer release hit theaters, and since then nothing has changed.  The acclaim is well-deserved, but what really makes the latest effort from Woody Allen shine is the great supporting turns from the likes of Sally Hawkins, Bobby Cannavale, Peter Sarsgaard and The “Dice Man” himself, Andrew Dice Clay. 

 #7. Mud

Hopefully everyone is aware of the “McConassaince” by now,  the career resurgence of Matthew McConaughey that started roughly around late 2011. 2013 was his finest year so far and it started off with Jeff Nichols’ story of a young kid helping a fugitive find his long, lost love.  McConaughey and Sam Shepard have great supporting roles and Tye Sheridan gives a jaw-dropping performance in the best coming-of-age tale this year.  

#6. Dallas Buyers Club

McConaughey’s best leading performance, however, was as Ron Woodruff, a man dying of AIDS who seeks alternative treatments in his fight to survive.  Jared Leto also turns in a career best as the transgender patient, Rayon, who forms a bond with the homophobic Woodruff.  It's a great story of survival that features my favorite leading and supporting performances of the year.

#5. American Hustle

David O. Russell’s latest film is a fun, entertaining, mishmash of a movie.  It’s part caper, part comedy, a little 70s music video with a touch of Scorsese.  Bale, Adams, Cooper, and Lawrence all deliver excellent performances and the final product confirms the director has really hit his stride. 

#4. Before Midnight

If you haven’t been introduced to the “Before…” trilogy, now would be a great time to jump in.  Richard Linklater’s 3^rd installment of this very mature look at an adult relationship is in some ways, the very best of the series.  Taking place 18 years after the 1^st chapter, and 9 years after the previous, Midnight gives us a deeper, darker look at a couple that met on a fateful train ride in 1995.  This lowest grossing trilogy of all-time is still one of the very best thanks to a fantastic third installment. 

#3. The Wolf of Wall Street

The Wolf of Wall Street is the most fun I’ve had at the movies all year.  Jordan Belfort’s story is a wild, hilarious, drug-fueled tale of debauchery brought to life by Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio.  Jonah Hill, Margot Robbie and Matthew McConaughey also deliver memorable supporting performances, but it’s 100% Leo’s movie and maybe a career best.  In the latter days of his long career, Scorsese has delivered another gem.  

#2. Her

The most emotional film of the year is Spike Jonze’s Her.  The originality that Jonze brings to the screenplay and the direction is outstanding. Joaquin Phoenix plays the melancholy lead who falls for his computer’s OS, voiced by Scarlett Johansson. It’s a deep, nuanced film that features a nice commentary on our current dependence on technology, but the heart of the movie is the love story.  The way the film explores human relationships, both real and artificial is what makes this very original work, one of the best of 2013. 

#1. Gravity

Alfonso Cuaron had a small but stellar filmography before Gravity, so after some great trailers there were some heavy expectations behind this one. Thankfully, I wasn’t disappointed as he delivered the best film of the year.  A technical masterwork, from the music and sound design, to the smooth and fluid camerawork, every second feels as if we’re right there with the characters in space.  It’s a spectacle in every sense of the word.  2013 was the best year in film I’ve ever witnessed and with all of the great movies, the visionary Gravity stands above them all. 

2014 Golden Globes Recap

In typical booze-fueled fashion, the Golden Globes came and went last night, creating the tiniest of ripples on a long journey to the Academy Awards. Before I begin to break down some of last evening's surprises in the movie categories, I'd love to throw a shout out to my favorite drama series of all-time, Breaking Bad. A Golden Globe win has been long overdue for the show itself and its leading star, Bryan Cranston. Congrats to everyone involved!

Now, let's set our focus back on the film-side of things and recap what transpired last evening (For a Full List of Winners Click Here). In the highly regarded Best Picture and Best Director competitions we're finally getting a clearer view of how these races are taking shape. The Globes have all but confirmed that 12 Years a Slave has the upper hand over Gravity, while American Hustle is the true wildcard player involved. It's interesting to note that the Hollywood Foreign Press elected to reward American Hustle for two of its four nominated performances, while 12 Years a Slave was shut out in all three of its performances. Either way it should be a hard fought battle to the finish line between these two apparent frontruners. As for Best Director, Gravity's Alfonso Cuaron took home the statue in a well-deserved victory. It's looking like he's the head of the class right now with Steve McQueen and David O. Russell knocking on the door, but all signs keep pointing to Cuaron being the big winner on Oscar night.

The Best Actor race took an interesting turn yesterday evening when the HFP handed Leonardo DiCaprio a shocking win in the Best Actor-Comedy/Musical category over presumed favorite, Nebraska's Bruce Dern. The Wolf of Wall Street star humbly accepted the award and praised his longtime directing companion, Martin Scorsese, as well as the rest of his cast members. The win makes Leo an interesting player in the very crowded Best Actor race, which could be bad news for Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) or Robert Redford (All Is Lost) who are also fringe players battling it out for those final two spots.

One of the evening's finest moments came when Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) edged out Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) in the Best Actor-Drama category. McConaughey has reinvented his career and the Globes have honored him for the impressive transformation. He topped my Personal Picks for 2013 in the Best Actor race and I hope to see the trend continue on to the Academy Awards, because McConaughey is certainly deserving.

Another surprising twist at last night's event was the kink that Amy Adams (American Hustle) threw into the Best Actress race. A field of five had felt all but set with the legendary Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) hanging on for dear life with the final spot. However, in a head-to-head showdown for the Best Actress-Comedy/Musical category, Adams shockingly took the win and Streep walked out of the building empty-handed. This leaves many of us wondering just how safe Streep should be feeling about her assumed Oscar Nomination. Either way, Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) continues to motor past the rest of her competition in the Best Actress-Drama category en route to what feels like an assured Academy Award victory in early March.

The Globes have officially left their mark and a huge congratulations is in order for all of last night's winners. Oscar Nominations will be unveiled on the morning of Thursday January 16th, and we'll have most of these questions answered by then. Stay tuned!

Dave's 2013 Movie Awards

My 2013 movie-watching has finally concluded. I've seen just about all there is to see and I'm ready to wrap up my cinematic year with my personal picks in the 6 major categories as I do every year (2012). 2013 brought an extensive collection of strong films, ones that ranged from dark and visceral dramas, to edge-of-your-seat action thrillers, to satirical comedies. I've seen it all, and enjoyed myself along the way. Hopefully you have too. But without waiting any longer, here are my "best of" selections for 2013.

Best Supporting Actress

Honorable Mention: Amy Adams (Her), Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyn Davis) and Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave)

#5. Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle

#4. Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine

#3. Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave

#2. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County

And the winner is ...

#1. June Squibb - Nebraska

Alexander Payne's dysfunctional family dramedy, Nebraska, definitely has its fair share of laughs. The best ones were constantly being set up by precise timing from supporting matriarch June Squibb. Squibb was nothing short of hysterical and completely unforgettable in her role.

Best Supporting Actor

Honorable Mention: Sam Rockwell (The Way Way Back), Bill Nighy (About Time) and Matthew McConaughey (Mud)

#5. Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street

#4. Bradley Cooper - American Hustle

#3. Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club

#2. Daniel Bruhl - Rush

And the winner is ...

#1. Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave

When your film is depicting one of the most heinous and cruel time periods in American history, you need a diabolical performance to make it authentic. For the Oscar frontrunner, 12 Years a Slave, Michael Fassbender gave "that" performance. It's the type of showing that jumps off the screen and rots in the pit of your stomach. Making you feel uneasy and repulsed all at the same time, Fassbender gives one of the most convincing portrayals of the year.

Best Actress

Honorable Mention: Brit Marling (The East), Sandra Bullock (Gravity) and Amy Adams (American Hustle)

#5. Judi Dench - Philomena

#4. Meryl Streep - August: Osage County

#3. Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks

#2. Brie Larson - Short Term 12

And the winner is ...

#1. Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine

Woody Allen always has a way of extracting top-flight female performances and he does it once again in this year's Blue Jasmine. Blanchett plays a delusional socialite on the verge of a nervous breakdown after her world comes crumbling down. Blanchett has always been a fine actress, but this is one of her most notable performances and certainly the best leading actress role of the year.

Best Actor

Honorable Mention: Oscar Issac (Inside Llewyn Davis), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) and Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)

 #5. Christian Bale - American Hustle

#4. Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave

#3. Bruce Dern - Nebraska

#2. Robert Redford - All Is Lost

And the winner is ...

#1. Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club

What a year it's been for McConaughey. He's fully reinvented himself as one of the fine dramatic actors in Hollywood and his future looks bright in 2014 with a leading role in Christopher Nolan's highly anticipated and more presumably Oscar-friendly film, Interstellar. But with Dallas Buyers Club, McConaughey goes all-out committing to his role by shedding massive amounts of body weight and, even more impressively, delivering the most notable performance of 2013. 

Best Director

Honorable Mention: J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost), Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street) and Danny Boyle (Trance)

#5. Ron Howard - Rush

#4. Peter Berg - Lone Survivor

#3. Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave

#2. David O. Russell - American Hustle

And the winner is ...

#1. Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity

One of the most visually stunning and technologically groundbreaking films of all time, Gravity, comes from the masterful director, Alfonso Cuaron. I was blown away by all of the feats the filmmaker was able to accomplish in this intense sci-fi drama. It's obvious that Cuaron continues to push himself to new heights while most of the other directors in Hollywood are forced to watch as the proverbial bar continues to rise.

Best Picture

Honorable Mention: The Wolf of Wall Street, Trance, Short Term 12, Dallas Buyers Club and Gravity

#5. 12 Years a Slave

#4. About Time

#3. Rush

#2. American Hustle

And the winner is ...

#1. Lone Survivor

As the old adage rings true, I really did "save the best for last". My final movie of 2013 also happened to be the most compelling, forthright and memorable film of the year. Peter Berg's Lone Survivor has been slightly criticized by people desperate to point out its over-dramatized and highly-debated fact surrounding just how many Taliban soldiers these Navy Seals were up against. That's just hogwash and nitpicking. Lone Survivor's accuracy is about 95% indisputable and, that being the case, it makes for one of the most amazing true stories I've ever seen brought to life on the big-screen. A kudos to its 4 main actors (Mark Wahlberg, Ben Foster, Taylor Kitsch and Emile Hirsch) and the entire team surrounding my top film of 2013, Lone Survivor.

Lone Survivor

Film: Lone Survivor

Starring: Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter), Ben Foster (The Messenger) and Taylor Kitsch (Savages)

Director: Peter Berg (Hancock)

U.S. Release: December 25th, 2013 (Limited Release - Rated R)

Genre: Action

Runtime: 121 minutes


Imagine this ... you're walking down a dark and desolate road when you're approached by a stranger wielding a gun. How would you feel? Scared? Uncomfortable? Just the sight of such a deadly weapon would make almost anyone feel these types of emotions. Now, imagine the amount of fear our brave young soldiers must feel on a daily basis serving overseas in dangerous countries like Afghanistan, fighting against armed militants who don't abide by the typical rules of war. Peter Berg's Lone Survivor is for them. The strong men and women who protect our right to kiss our family goodnight and sleep safely in our beds. Perhaps no film has ever made me feel as proud and thankful for each and every member of our armed services. You are all heroes.

Lone Survivor tells the remarkable true story of a botched 2005 mission where four brave members of SEAL Team 10 found themselves under siege by an army of Taliban soldiers. Thankfully, someone lived to recount their harrowing tale of heroism and brotherhood. One that cuts right through the skin and penetrates straight to the center of your heart, where it belongs.

This isn't Peter Berg's first go-around with a middle east centered war film. The director already has 2007's solid effort, The Kingdom, nestled away in his back pocket. However, his newest release, Lone Survivor, reaches insurmountable heights with an inarguably strong showing from its action-loving director and a relentless true story that goes far beyond anything you'd ever imagine. In a packed afternoon showing you couldn't even hear the person next to you breathing, because chances are they weren't. The feature's intensity is numbing, almost paralytic. You don't just watch these four soldiers combat against an army of dedicated religious fanatics, you experience it. Berg puts you in the center of the action, so much so that you feel every cut and you suffer with every gunshot wound. It's mesmerizing and something you can only understand by witnessing first-hand.

Another impressive quality to the film is how expansive the story actually becomes. The most interesting facets of this real-life account exceed beyond what you'll find in any trailer. There are moments of compassion and sympathy that play out in such a beautiful and earnest sequence. In addition to an exquisite story, Lone Survivor benefits from gutsy and respectful performances from all of its four main stars, Mark Wahlberg, Ben Foster, Taylor Kitsch and Emile Hirsch. Without question, there's pressure to taking on roles that hold as much important as these ones do. The entire cast does a dignified job of bringing them to life, and perhaps no one is better than the regularly overlooked Ben Foster. He's just marvelous, and I'll leave it at that. There's plenty to appreciate across the board, making Lone Survivor my new top film of 2013.

Okay, I'll finally stop with the outpouring of love and quickly address one of the few shortcomings surrounding the feature. For example, its title ... completely unnecessary! My guess is most people are unaware of the story's details going into a viewing, so why give away the ending right off the bat? There are some moments in the third act where Berg attempts to build some tension and anxiety, but they're weakened by a predisposed knowledge garnered from the film's title. Yet, we can easily look past this error in judgment and its effects on the progression of the movie to appreciate Lone Survivor for what it truly is, one of the most gripping and worthwhile true stories you'll ever encounter.


Stars: 4 stars out of 4

Grade: A

2014 Golden Globe Predictions

Greg (Reel True) and I decided to both throw our Golden Globes Predictions into the ring. As one of the biggest precursors before March 2nd's Academy Awards, the Golden Globes will be airing this Sunday night (1/12). With the booze freely flowing and Hollywood's finest ready to party, the Globes may not carry the same weight as the Oscars, but it's definitely the awards show you don't want to miss!

Smaller Categories

Best Animated Feature: Dave & Greg - Frozen

Best Foreign Film:  Dave - Blue is the Warmest Color & Greg - The Great Beauty 

Best Original Score: Dave & Greg - Steven Price - Gravity 

Best Original Song: Dave - "Please Mr. Kennedy" - Justin Timberlake & co. - Inside Llewyn Davis & Greg - "Let It Go" - Idina Menzel - Frozen

Best Motion Picture - Drama

With the two major combatants in this highly regarded race being Steve McQueen's 12 Years a Slave and Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity, it will be very interesting to see who walks away victorious.

Predictions: Dave & Greg - 12 Years a Slave 

Best Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical

In a surprising move, many of the big-named Best Picture hopefuls for the Oscars chose to go the Comedy/Musical route instead of Drama. While The Wolf of Wall Street or Nebraska seem most likely to spoil American Hustle's frontrunner status, it's easier said than done.

Predictions: Dave & Greg - American Hustle 

Best Actor - Drama

In actuality, this race can be slimmed down to only two serious contenders. And while the heart wants what the heart wants, and my heart is pulling for an extremely deserving Matthew McConaughey, we both feel that the Hollywood Foreign Press will be going a different way.

Predictions: Dave & Greg - Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave 

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical

This honestly feels like one of the most lopsided categories at the Globes. There isn't much more to say than, "Give the old man that statue already".

Predictions: Dave & Greg - Bruce Dern - Nebraska

Best Actress - Drama

One name's been sweeping through the early precursors and that's Cate Blanchett, but some believe that Gravity's Sandra Bullock still has something left in the tank or even a late charge from the dame Judi Dench is possible. We'll just have to wait and see.

Predictions: Dave - Cate Blachett - Blue Jasmine & Greg - Judi Dench - Philomena

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical

The Globes did a commendable job of finding three solid nominees from smaller independent films. However, those three ladies have a difficult hill to climb against the always vote-worthy Meryl Streep and the leading actress from our anticipated Best Picture Winner in the Comedy/Musical grouping, Amy Adams. It sounds strange to say it but both Streep and Adams are fringe players for that 5th Oscar spot, so this becomes an even more meaningful selection. But where will they go?

Predictions: Dave - Meryl Streep - August: Osage County & Greg - Amy Adams - American Hustle

Best Director

While our two Best Picture selections have directors, Steve McQueen and David O. Russell, still very much in the mix, it just seems too perfect that the globes will try desperately to keep things somewhat symmetrical and continue the 3-headed monster debate all the way to the Oscars.

Predictions: Dave & Greg - Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity

Best Supporting Actor

With major players Jared Leto and Michael Fassbender presumed to be battling this one out, it's important to remember that the Best Supporting Actor category is always crowded and always a wildcard.

Predictions: Dave - Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club & Greg - Daniel Bruhl - Rush 

Best Supporting Actress

Although Jennifer Lawrence has fared well for herself in the early going of the awards season hoopla and is quickly becoming the starlet of Hollywood, there was a very soulful and agonizing debut performance from an unknown Lupita Nyong'o that can't be ignored. We're thinking it won't.

Predictions: Dave & Greg - Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave 

Best Screenplay

Since the Globes group adapted and original screenplays into one mega pool of possibilities, there's always a lot of different ways this race can go. It will certainly be interesting to see if Eric Singer and David O. Russell (American Hustle) can withstand the powerhouse effect of 12 Years a Slave and John Ridley's adapted script.

Predictions: Dave - John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave & Greg - Eric Singer & David O. Russell - American Hustle

*** Remember to tune in to the Golden Globes on Sunday night for a star-studded and fun-filled affair!