With merely 5 days to go until the 84th annual Academy Awards, today marks a very important milestone along the road to the Oscars. Today is the deadline for all Academy members to have their votes sealed and postmarked. Therefore, the widespread campaigning for votes will finally seize (yeah, I'm talking to you Jean Dujardin). As a critic myself, the Academy Awards is my Super Bowl after the Super Bowl. Having been glued to movie screens since the start of 2011, here's my take on how the major Oscar races are shaping up down the stretch:
Best Picture
With Alexander Payne's The Descendants quickly falling out of contention, the Best Picture race is down to three. The odds on favorite to walk away the big winner at Sunday's ceremony is, without question, The Artist. The black and white silent film has been a freight train during the awards season. However, with the backing of a strong Screen Actors Guild showing, The Help has positioned itself as the prime culprit for an upset. In a distant third, the widely supported Hugo still has an inkling of life left. Outside of the big three, the rest of the Best Picture pool is filled with garnish.
Best Director
As the winner of the Directors Guild Award, The Artist's Michael Hazanavicius is the clear frontrunner. What is shaping up to be a HUGE night for Harvey Weinstein's prodigal baby, Hazanavicius does have some stiff competition from Oscar-regular Martin Scorsese. Scorsese illustrated his diversity with the beloved family film Hugo, and it wouldn't be a shocker to see him walk away victorious. The only other longshot with any chance of winning is Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life). However, Malick's polarizing film is sure to turn away a large portion of voters. As for Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) and Alexander Payne (The Descendants), enjoy the free cocktails.
Best Actor
Clearly the Best Actor race is the closest of the bunch. Prior to the SAG awards, I would've bet the farm on George Clooney (The Descendants) outshining the competition. Yet, The Artist's own Jean Dujardin managed to steal a SAG win and has been the toast of the town lately. If there's as much love for The Artist among Academy members as I think there is, Clooney will go home empty handed. Dujardin, who hit the US campaigning circuit hard with his surprise appearance on SNL, has the slight edge. My condolences to fans of Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy), Brad Pitt (Moneyball), and Demian Bichir (A Better Life). The three of them are too far out to even consider.
Best Actress
Reminiscent of any old episode of Scooby Doo, Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) is nothing more than obvious bait to sway your attention from the clear favorite, Viola Davis (The Help). Even with Golden Globe and BAFTA wins to her credit, Streep's loss at the SAG awards is far too telling. Academy members truly appreciate the acting in Taylor Tate's The Help, and they'll make it known by giving the statue to Davis. I'm sure there will be a few sentimental members voting in favor of Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs), who's never won before. Also, Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) and Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) appear to be distant longshots at best.
Best Supporting Actor
Both supporting races look to be as locked up as Lindsay Lohan after another DUI. Christopher Plummer (Beginners) has been smooth sailing to the Oscars and I don't see any of his competitors stealing his thunder. If I had to claim a main opposition to Plummer, it would have to be Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn). However, I don't see Branagh, Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), Nick Nolte (Warrior), or Jonah Hill (Moneyball) spoiling the evening for Plummer.
Best Supporting Actress
Similar to Christopher Plummer, it's been a one woman wrecking ball with Octavia Spencer (The Help) in the Best Supporting Actress race. Perhaps only a nuclear holocaust could prevent Spencer from claiming the victory on Sunday evening. A nuclear holocaust, or Berenice Bejo (The Artist). Unlike Plummer, Spencer faces the odd challenge of potentially splitting votes with her castmate Jessica Chastain (The Help). If enough votes are split, it could pave the way for a surprise winner in the form of Bejo. With As much love as The Artist has been receiving, clearly you can't ignore the film's biggest female star. In the back of the pack are Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) and Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs). Even though this would be the perfect category to recognize a character from a comedy film, I can't see McCarthy or anyone else from the field dethroning Spencer.
That about wraps up my Oscar update. Be sure to join in on the fun and vote for this month's poll concerning the Best Picture race. Also, for a chance at some fun prizes (including a Grand Prize trip to Los Angeles for a film premier) be sure to check out the Outguess Ebert contest. Stay tuned for my final Oscar predictions which will be announced on Saturday.
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