The Road to the Oscars Update

It's been a long and ever-changing journey to the 2013 Academy Awards and I still can't believe that we have three more weeks to go. Through countless lead changes and a Best Director snub for Ben Affleck, the Best Picture category has flipped, once again, in favor of Argo. Taking home the big prize with the Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild and Directors Guild, Argo has gained a head of steam and catapulted its way back to "frontrunner" status. But with nearly three weeks remaining, the voters have plenty of time to let the late surge subside. As it stands, here's a look at the major races for this year's Academy Awards.

Best Picture

After a mind-boggling snub in the Best Director category, many felt as though Ben Affleck's Argo was no longer a serious candidate for Best Picture. However, a clean sweep through the major precursors have indicated that perhaps Academy Voters will show an outpouring of support for Affleck's amazing feature. While the race is still "up for grabs", I currently am a believer in Argo.

Other Major Contenders: It's too early to count out Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook in this race as both have Director Nominations to stand on as well as many other intangibles.

Best Director

Back when nominations were announced, no Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) and no Ben Affleck (Argo) spelled an almost certain victory for Steven Spielberg (Lincoln). About three and a half weeks later and not much has changed. It still appears as if Spielberg has the inside track and should walk away with his third Best Director honor from the Academy.

Other Major Contenders: Despite Spielberg's seemingly large lead in the race, Ang Lee (Life of Pi) serves as his stiffest competition. Lee has also taken home a Best Director statue for Brokeback Mountain and clearly has a serious backing by some Academy Voters. Sitting at a distant third is Silver Linings Playbook director David O. Russell who is unlikely to win, but still a very possible spoiler.

Best Actor

In a few of the major Oscar races, some things never seem to change. For example, Best Actor frontrunner for the entire year has been Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and no one in their right mind would bet against him. Day-Lewis gave a remarkable performance filled with Oscar-winning moments that are assured to land him his third victory from the Academy.

Other Major Contenders: There may be no "major" competition for Daniel Day-Lewis, but Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) and Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables) appear to be the best chance as the unlikeliest of spoilers.

Best Actress

As the famous Shakespeare quote goes, "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark". Every so often the Academy likes to throw a big-time curve ball, and this year it could come in the Best Actress category. All indicators seem to give a slight edge to Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) after her hard fought SAG win last month. However, she should sleep a little less comfortably as something surprising could be brewing here.

Other Major Contenders: On the surface, Jessica Chastain feels like Lawrence's biggest rival. Her gutsy portrayal was unforgettable and the sturdy foundation for Best Picture Nominee Zero Dark Thirty. Yet, some minor rumblings have generated a late surge for 85 year old Emmanuelle Riva (Amour). Riva is the oldest Best Actress Nominee ever and an Oscar win would happen to fall on her 86th birthday. Keeping Christopher Plummer in mind from last year's Oscars, the voters can get sentimental for an aging performer and perhaps the stars will align for Riva later this month.

Best Supporting Actor

In what's become the most difficult race to dissect, I give the slightest advantage imaginable to Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) in the Best Supporting Actor category. As the freshest victor in our minds, Tommy Lee Jones won the SAG and his performance comes from one of the biggest Best Picture competitors out there. 

Other Major Contenders: Perhaps the most notable rival in this race is Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook). De Niro missed out on all of the major precursors, but he's very well respected among voters. Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) won the Golden Globe and Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) took home the Critics' Choice statue, so this seems like anyone's race from top to bottom.

Best Supporting Actress

Much like the Best Actor category, Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) has all but officially won this race. Hathaway has never wavered from the top of everyone's list and I don't expect her to lose her place at the peak of the mountain. She gave an enormous amount of life to her film and goosebumps during "I Dreamed a Dream" are a certified guarantee. This is a one horse race and you shouldn't expect otherwise.

Other Major Contenders: As more of a formality than anything else, Sally Field (Lincoln) is probably Hathaway's greatest roadblock. I also found Amy Adams (The Master) and Helen Hunt (The Sessions) to be exceptional in their roles as well. However, both seem like the longest of long shots to hear their name called on Sunday February 24th.


*** How do you see the races shaping up? Let me know if you agree or disagree with this analysis by leaving a comment below.