With about two month until that brisk Thursday morning in mid-January when Oscar Nominations will finally be announced, I've decided to take a look at how the 6 major races are taking shape. I still have around a dozen movies left on my 2014 wish-list, but over 80 other titles released this year are in my rear view. Therefore, lets dive into what we know and where the road to the Oscars could be going from here.
Best Picture
Best Bets
With the highest of praises out of the Toronto International Film Festival, I see The Imitation Game as the early favorite for Best Picture. While MANY critics are clamoring for Birdman by calling it the greatest film of this century, I feel that its story is too weak to propel it to victory (think last year's Gravity). Boyhood is so strong on so many levels and I would expect to see it in the finals.
The Next Tier
Although I view Foxcatcher as the best film of 2014 (so far), being a grim tale is never as easy sell for the Academy and Gone Girl faces the same difficulty. The Stephen Hawking biopic The Theory of Everything is pure Oscar bait, so I feel pretty strong about its chances in the long run. Less likely titles with an outside chance include Christopher Nolan's hot new sci-fi release, Interstellar, as well as the Sundance Grand Jury winner, Whiplash.
Yet to See
Unbroken is the great unknown and many are expecting the Christmas Day release to shape most of the major races. A Most Violent Year could be an epic crime drama and we all know the Academy loves a good musical, so be on the lookout for Into the Woods. Two other darkhorses who could make a push in the race include American Sniper and Selma.
Best Director
Best Bets
No one can argue against the technological achievements of Alejandro G. Inarritu's Birdman, hence his frontrunner status in the Best Director race (once again, think Alfonso Cuaron and Gravity). Richard Linklater dazzled audiences with his groundbreaking work in Boyhood, and if The Imitation Game is as strong of a contender as I envision, Morten Tyldum will certainly find his way into the top five.
The Next Tier
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) has an extremely reputable career and Christopher Nolan (Interstellar) has been overlooked in the past, making them both interesting names in the competition. I wouldn't be surprised to see David Fincher (Gone Girl) or James Marsh (The Theory of Everything) in the final group as well.
Yet to See
Angelina Jolie (Unbroken) is the big x-factor and any of J.C. Chandor (A Most Violent Year), Ava DuVernay (Selma) and Rob Marshall (Into the Woods) have an outside chances of sneaking into the finals.
Best Actor
Best Bets
Michael Keaton (Birdman) headlines a strong list of Oscar hopefuls that will most likely find their way into the final five. The other three performances are portrayals of real life figures featuring Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) as English mathematician Dr. Alan Turing, Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) as physicist Stephen Hawking and Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) as the devious multi-millionaire John E. du Pont.
The Next Tier
Of the films I've seen this year I'd say Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Bill Murray (St. Vincent) and Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar) are on the outside looking in, but still fighting for that final spot. Fiennes has to overcome being in an early year release and Bill Murray's role as a lovable grump hasn't picked up much steam since its release. McConaughey's performance was strong, but he could suffer from the year-after hangover since this tier realistically holds no chance of winning.
Yet to See
The chatter surrounding Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner) hasn't ceased and Oscar Issac looks fantastic in A Most Violent Year. Everyone's calling Angelina Jolie's Unbroken the December game-changer, which makes Jack O'Connell a dangerous player, and both David Oyelowo (Selma) and Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) are performances to look out for.
Best Actress
Best Bets
We all know what Jean-Marc Vallee can do with a leading role, so Reese Witherspoon (Wild) seems like a major contender, along with other standouts like Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) and Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything).
The Next Tier
Since the Best Actress race contains a paper-thin crop of talent, Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars) is more so a name I'm just throwing out there rather than someone who I think will make the final cut.
Yet to See
There are quite a few female performances I'm eager to catch by the year's end. First is Julianne Moore's (Still Alice) turn as a woman experiencing early symptoms of Alzheimer's Disease. Many have already proclaimed Moore as the winner, but Amy Adams (Big Eyes) always delivers an Oscar-caliber role. Also keep an eye on Emily Blunt (Into the Woods), Hilary Swank (The Homesman) and Jennifer Aniston (Cake) as well.
Best Supporting Actor
Best Bets
From Farmers Insurance commercials to Academy Award frontrunner, J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) could be in for a huge awakening. He's outstanding and the role is big enough to warrant the win. His biggest competitors are Edward Norton (Birdman) and Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), who both happen to fade in and out of their respective films. Finally, Ethan Hawke's performance in Boyhood was strong enough to round out the top four.
The Next Tier
If the fifth and final spot doesn't come from any of the films I haven't seen this year, then that means Charlie Cox (The Theory of Everything) will mostly join the group, or even a little more of a reach would be the highly touted Andy Serkis who many argue deserves to recognition for his CGI work in Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.
Yet to See
People have lauded Josh Brolin's turn in Paul Thomas Anderson's Inherent Vice and, with an uncharacteristically weak class, older statesman Robert Duvall (The Judge) could sneak into the race. Furthermore, the wait-and-see approach keeps names like Miyari (Unbroken), Academy Award winner Christoph Waltz (Big Eyes) and John Goodman (The Gambler) as intriguing possibilities as well.
Best Supporting Actress
Best Bets
While all indicators point to Boyhood's Patricia Arquette as the early leader, I was most impressed with Emma Stone's work in Birdman. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) has worked her way into the final five as well, leaving two spots up for grabs.
The Next Tier
Two other impressive performances that I've caught this year come from Carrie Coon (Gone Girl) and Laura Dern (Wild), both of which face an uphill battle with the names they'll be up against later this year.
Yet to See
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year) is always magnificent and I anticipate her return to the final five. Another year means another Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) nomination ... usually, but Sienna Miller (American Sniper) and Carmen Ejogo (Selma) are formidable opponents we are anxious to see.
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