Oscar Talk - December 7th, 2017

Since our last break-down of the upcoming awards season in mid-November, Steven Spielberg's The Post debuted to a standing ovation and has completely changed the landscape in nearly all the major categories. Let's revisit the current state of these races just days before Golden Globe Nominations (Monday 12/11) and SAG Nominations (Wednesday 12/13) are announced.

Best Picture

Safe Bets: Thanks to Hollywood's tenuous relationship with the current administration, The Post and it's timely story which chronicles a newspaper's Supreme Court battle with the government, clearly signals a new frontrunner has arrived. Other films that feel all but assured entry into the final dance include the fast-rising contender Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water.

Other Potential Nominees: Joe Wright's Darkest Hour has been on the decline, but there will still be a devout faction of voters showing support for the film. Holding steady as strong possibilities for nominations are Christopher Nolan's Dunkirk and Luca Guadagnino's Call Me By Your Name. Finally, I, Tonya is being carried by the film studio NEON, which doesn't possess the experience of touting a Best picture contender, which could ultimately hurt its chances.

Dark Horse Contenders: I still expect one of either Get Out or Mudbound to make the cut, due to the somewhat recent backlash of #OscarsSoWhite, but I'm not sure which one it will be. Lastly, a few long-shots remain with Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread, Linklater's Last Flag Flying and festival darling The Florida Project.

Best Director

Safe Bets: Iconic filmmaker Steven Spielberg tackles a timely issue with The Post and that could prove to be a lethal combination for the rest of the pack. Often times, when momentum starts to build in December, it's difficult to derail a frontrunner. Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) will certainly land in the final five but I'm not sure anyone else feels guaranteed of a spot at this point. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) would probably be the next closest.

Other Potential Nominees: Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird continues to rise among the ranks in all categories, making her a strong contender here as well, while Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards) and Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name) hope to ride the wave of possible Best Picture selections. Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) is always a threat in the Best Director category and, while Joe Wright's Darkest Hour appears to be on a downward trajectory, it's still hanging on at the moment.

Dark Horse Contenders: I keep hearing Dee Rees' (Mudbound) name thrown around, but as an inexperienced Netflix film, I'm not quite sold on her chances yet. The Academy has shown copious amount of love for Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049) in the past and I, Tonya is a strong enough film to still keep Craig Gillespie in the conversation.

Best Actor

Safe Bets: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) remains the frontrunner until he isn't, but that doesn't mean Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) will go down without a fight. Especially considering this is "supposedly" Day-Lewis' final film. Two-time Oscar Winner Tom Hanks should benefit from the overall affection of The Post, even if the Academy hasn't been too kind to him in recent memory (Sully and Saving Mr. Banks).

Other Potential Nominees: Jake Gyllenhaal remains a quiet but worthy selection for his role in Stronger, and James Franco continues to receive an outpouring of adoration for The Disaster Artist that should linger throughout the awards season, even though it's difficult to make the cut in a comedy. A name you'll want to keep an eye on is Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name), who's rather young for a Best Actor nod, but who also continues to hold strong at this stage of the game. Also, a storied favorite of the Academy, Christian Bale has solidified himself as a worthy contender for Scott Cooper's Hostiles.

Dark Horse Contenders: Sadly, Andrew Garfield's (Breathe) stock is plummeting. Mild expectations left me surprisingly satisfied with the film and especially his work, but he's quickly falling out of contention. Finally, Steve Carell (Last Flag Flying) has enjoyed recent Oscar recognition, yet the film seems to be slipping in all categories.

Best Actress

Safe Bets: In one of the most crowded categories of the year, it's really a toss-up as to who's atop the leader-board at this stage of the game. Lady Bird's slow-mounting ascension up the ranks places Saoirse Ronan in an interesting position. She made the but lost for her terrific turn in Brooklyn recently, so perhaps she garners the redemption vote? However, the Oscar queen Meryl Streep muscles her way past the competition with the head of steam backing The Post, and Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) also stands a serious contender for the win. Three Billboards should end up a finalist for Best Picture and it would be expected that leading star Frances McDormand receives a nod as well. The same logic applies for Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water) but it's dangerous to feel too content with a predetermined top five this early in the process.

Other Potential Nominees: As we saw with Amy Adams (Arrival) last year, no one is safe from exclusion. Despite the five actress mentioned above feeling like a strong group of finalists, Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) has a long history of success with the Academy. The same can be said with Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) who provides a phenomenal turn in Woody Allen's latest, and Allen has a track record of success for his leading ladies.

Dark Horse Contenders: Early word says rising star Vicky Krieps stands toe-to-toe with the great Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread, so don't count her out quite yet. Also, foreign-film stars have a history of faring well in the Best Actress category, making Diane Kruger's highly-regarded work for In the Fade a silent, but deadly, player.

Best Supporting Actor

Safe Bets: Until the bitter end I plan to stand with my overwhelming choice for Best Supporting Actor, and that would be Sam Rockwell's transcending turn in Three Billboards. While I'm extremely confident he'll get in, his chance at a win doesn't feel as strong as it once was. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) may be his fiercest competition, but it would also be unwise to disregard Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name) in this race as well. 

Other Potential Nominees: Outside of the Big Three listed above, the last two spots are wide open at this point. Bryan Cranston once felt like a safe bet for his hilarious work in Last Flag Flying, but he may be forced to give way to votes thanks to co-star Laurence Fishbourne. The same applies to Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards) who may end up on the outside looking in when all is said and done. This could free up room for recent Oscar Winner Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) to make it into the top five, as it would be odd for a Best Picture Nominee to NOT have an actor nominated. Jason Mitchell's work in Mudbound is quite good, and he's got the fear of #OscarsSoWhite in his favor, but Richard Jenkins has also received a heap of praise for his performance in The Shape of Water.

Dark Horse Contenders: Much deeper down the list we have the longest of shots with Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name) and Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water), each of whom will struggle to earn votes because of internal competition from their films as well.

Best supporting Actress

Safe Bets: A pair of TV actresses headline the competition in this race, either of which have a strong chance at winning their first Oscar statue. Allison Janney (I, Tonya) delivers a louder, more attention-grabbing performance, while Laurie Metcalf's work in Lady Bird is a bit more subtle. Either would be a fine choice by my standards, but after it's nothing but murky waters in the Best Supporting Actress category.

Other Potential Nominees: Oscar Winner Melissa Leo has scratched and clawed her way into the discussion with her work in Novitiate, and Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) is also garnering high praises. I haven't seen either film, but both are immediately on my end of the year radar. Moreover, Mudbound's Mary J. Blige gives an impressive turn, making her another strong contender from a film that will most likely find a nomination somewhere. Oscar Winner Octavia Spencer's (The Shape of Water) name also carries some clout and her work in one of the year's most well-regarded films could land her in the final discussion as well.

Dark Horse Contenders: Downsizing's Hong Chau continues to have her name thrown around, as both her and Girl's Trip co-star Tiffany Haddish captured nominations from The Critics' Choice Awards. As for Haddish, comedies are a tough sell with the Academy, but it's been done before (i.e. Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids). 

*** Keep checking back as we continue to monitor the ever-changing landscape of the major Oscar races ***