2012 Oscar Nominee Predictions

After a boring weekend where Underworld 4 ruled the box office and with Oscar Nominations slated to be announced on Tuesday January 24th, now seemed like as good a time as any to offer up my predictions on the nominees. I'm going to keep this as short and sweet as possible and restrict my opinions to the 6 major motion picture categories.

Best Picture

Who's In: The Best Picture category can now have anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees depending on how member voting goes. The no-brainers are The Artist (who just picked up a valuable Producer's Guild Win yesterday), The Descendants, Hugo and The Help. I see the critically acclaimed films Midnight in Paris and Moneyball sneaking in as well, leaving 6 nominees this year.

Who's Out: Although I don't predict it happening, I wouldn't be shocked if The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo or War Horse (or both) walked away with a nomination too. Sorry to fans of Bridesmaids, Drive, Ides of March, or Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, I don't see any of those figuring into the mix.

Best Actor

Who's In: There's 4 "sure things" in the Best Acting category, George Clooney (The Descendants), Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Brad Pitt (Moneyball), and Michael Fassbender (Shame). Who will garner that final nomination? It's almost impossible to believe that Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) has never received a nomination before, and for that reason alone I'm giving him the 5th spot. I see the Academy looking over the oft-praised Leo and selecting Oldman, an aging actor who has an extensive history of unrecognized cinematic achievement.

Who's Out: As much as I've pushed for Boardwalk Empire's own Michael Shannon (Take Shelter), he and Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar) will end up as the odd men out in this race.

Best Actress

Who's In: The top 4 candidates are Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), Viola Davis (The Help), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn), and Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin). That final slot is a coin flip between Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) and Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), but I'll go with Close.

Who's Out: Even though The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo has received more critical praise and the fact that it has a head of steam after its Directors Guild nomination, Rooney Mara won't be able to withstand Glenn Close. This also means no Charlize Theron (Young Adult) or Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene) as well.

Best Supporting Actor

Who's In: You can lock up nominations for Christopher Plummer (Beginners) and Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn), but outside of them it's pretty murky. In a tight race with 5 suitors dueling for 3 remaining spots, I see Albert Brooks (Drive), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), and Nick Nolte (Warrior) rounding out the category.

Who's Out: By siding with the aforementioned, that means Patton Oswalt (Young Adult) and Armie Hammer (J. Edgar) will be left out. As a distant dark horse, Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) should also miss out on a nomination as well.

Best Supporting Actress

Who's In: I see 3 definitive nominees in the form of Berenice Bejo (The Artist), Octavia Spencer (The Help), and Jessica Chastain (The Help). I'll follow the Screen Actors Guild for my last two selections and choose Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) and Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids). Despite the lack of critical support for Albert Nobbs, I see McTeer and Close as a package deal and I'm banking on both.

Who's Out: The two most notable outcasts will be Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) and Carey Mulligan (Shame). Woodley could very well steal a nomination from McTeer if Mara ends up toppling Close in the Best Actress category too.

Best Director

Who's In: When in doubt, follow the Directors Guild nominees. I'll do just that and select the 4 big horses Martin Scorsese (Hugo), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), Michael Hazanavicius (The Artist), and Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris). I'll also choose the DGA's 5th nominee as well, David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo). Fincher's film has been widely supported and its box office is approaching the century mark. There's also a hangover effect from Fincher's loss to Tom Hooper in last year's Best Director and Best Picture categories.

Who's Out: If Fincher's in, then Steven Spielberg (War Horse) and Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life) are out. Since War Horse has been on a steady free fall of late, I see Malick as the stronger competition for Fincher. As much as I hate to say it, there's almost no chance of Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive) having his name called either.

That concludes my predictions for Tuesday's 84th annual Academy Awards nominations. Let me know where I'm right and where I'm wrong. Leave your thoughts in the comments section.