2012 Oscars Preview

We're just two weeks away from the Academy's announcement of nominees for their 84th annual awards ceremony. Here's a quick glance into how I envision each of the major races taking shape:

Best Picture

Sure Things - The Academy's newest set of voting rules allows for anywhere from 5 to 10 films to be nominated. There are 4 films I see locked in for nominations: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, and The Help.

Probables - At this point, I personally think that 6 films will receive nominations. The last two movies I see making the cut are the critically acclaimed films Midnight in Paris and Moneyball.

Longshots - There are a few stragglers just outside of the top 6 who could sneak a nomination. Chances are slim but you can't write off the upward trending Ides of March, the free falling War Horse, and the precursor juggernaut The Tree of Life. I'm sorry for all you fans of Drive (myself included), but there's really no chance at all that it will land in the mix .

Best Director

Sure Things - It's a safe bet to assume that Michael Hazanavicius (The Artist) and Martin Scorsese (Hugo) are all but guaranteed a spot in the top 5. The rest of the field starts to get a little tricky.

Probables - After yesterday's DGA announcement, it looks as though Alexander Payne (The Descendants) and Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) have solidified themselves into the second tier of nominees. Therefore, leaving one spot up for grabs.

Longshots - David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) took home the 5th DGA nomination and he remains a solid longshot, but I'd put my money on either Steven Spielberg (War Horse) or Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life). Chances are very remote, but Taylor Tate (The Help) or George Clooney (Ides of March) could possibly sneak in that final spot as well.

Best Actor

Sure Things - The way I see it, there are 2 guaranteed nominations going to George Clooney (The Descendants) and Jean Dujardin (The Artist). They're untouchables at this point.

Probables - Rounding out the top 4 are Michael Fassbender (Shame) and Brad Pitt (Moneyball). Both of which seem like safe bets at this point, leaving one lone nomination for the taking.

Longshots - Unfortunately, Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar) has all the backing for the 5th and final spot. He received a nomination from both the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild. The more deserving, but less likely, Michael Shannon (Take Shelter) figures to be the only other serious contender. Anyone else outside of Demian Bichir (A Better Life) would be a huge surprise.

Best Actress

Sure Things - It's a safe bet to reserve two spots for Viola Davis (The Help) and the un-snub-able (and yes, I just made up a word) Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady).

Probables - It's looking like the field of 5 could be set with the likes of Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn), Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin), and a distant 5th in Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs). Close has a stronghold on the final spot as a nominee for both a Golden Globe and a SAG.

Longshots - Glenn Close could walk away empty handed, stranger things have happened. The only other female leads with a fighting chance of taking Close's nomination are Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) and Charlize Theron (Young Adult), both of which received Golden Globe nominations as well.

Best Supporting Actor

Sure Things - At this juncture, chalk up the freight train that is Albert Brooks (Drive) and Christopher Plummer (The Beginners) as guarantees. The two actors represent critically applauded films that most likely won't be recognized in any other categories. Therefore, they're safe bets.

Probables - Kenneth Branaugh (My Week with Marilyn) has all the makings of a solid nominee, and the surprising rise of Jonah Hill (Moneyball) make him a likely 4th contender. Hill received both a SAG and Golden Globes nomination.

Longshots - The final spot will mostly be a slugfest between Nick Nolte (Warrior) and Armie Hammer (J. Edgar). I give the slight edge to Nolte, but any Leo supporters (and there's plenty of them) will inevitably benefit Hammer. And although I think he's every bit deserving, the slightest of chances remain for Patton Oswalt (Young Adult) who was spectacular in his supporting role.

Best Supporting Actress

Sure Things - Lock up nominations for the trio of Jessica Chastain (The Help, although I prefer her work in Take Shelter), Octavia Spencer (The Help), and Berenice Bejo (The Artist).

Probables - The next tier belongs to Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), and Janet McTeer alone. Her pair of Golden Globe and SAG nominations make her a likely candidate to be recognized. However, her spot could rest solely on the shoulders of her fellow cast member Glenn Close. I see Close and McTeer as a package deal. Either they both get in, or neither of them get the votes. We'll have to wait and see.

Longshots - Since McTeer could conceivably not get in, there's an outside chance that both Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) and Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) could walk away with the final 2 spots. I'll give the slight edge to Woodley if McTeer does manage to make the cut.

Here's my latest up to date Oscar preview, be sure to check back next week (after the Golden Globe winners are announced) for my complete list of Oscar nomination predictions.